Introduction

It has been more than two years since the release of the World Migration Report 2022, which provided an overview of the global transformations intensely affecting migration and displacement around the world.¹ While acknowledging ongoing changes related to demographic transitions, as well as economic and social transformations, the 2022 report outlined the major geopolitical, environmental and technological transformations that shape migration and mobility, sometimes profoundly. The impacts of these systemic global shifts have only intensified further in the last two-year period. For example, hardening geopolitics has seen us witness previously unthinkable conflict in terms of both scale and nature. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation in early 2022 signalled a pivotal shift for the world, with some arguing that it “marked an abrupt end to 30 years of globalization and all the international cooperation that made that possible”.² The immediate impacts on Ukraine and Europe continue to be felt by millions of people, while the global impacts have touched many times more, as the consequences of the war ripple through global food security, energy security, international law, multilateralism, military strategy and alliances. ³

More recently, and notwithstanding devastating conflicts in many places around the world in the last two years (such as in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, the Sudan, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen), the Hamas attack on 7 October and the conflict in Gaza have been profoundly shocking for even the most seasoned analysts, as well as long- serving humanitarians.⁴ The regional and global consequences are potentially severe, highlighting how geopolitics are changing quickly and in dangerous ways.⁵ At the time of writing (November 2023), the deaths and displacements were already very high, and the humanitarian response intensely difficult and complex.⁶

It is also fair to say that the intensification of ecologically negative human activity raised in the previous World Migration Report (2022 edition) has only further intensified: overconsumption and overproduction linked to unsustainable economic growth, resource depletion and biodiversity collapse, as well as ongoing climate change (including global heating) are continuing to grip the world. We are more aware than ever before of the extremely negative consequences of human activities that are not preserving the planet’s ecological systems. The potential consequences for human migration and mobility are high in terms of global consciousness as climate records continue to be broken,⁷ while the specific future impacts and scenarios continue to be contested, discussed and debated.⁸ Nevertheless, there is a strong sense that major impacts will occur without adequate preventative actions related to carbon emissions and green technology uptake, as well as more granular preparedness actions, such as disaster risk reduction work underpinned by adequate climate finance.⁹ Recent positive developments in multilateral processes on climate change, however, provide for some optimism on cooperation going forward. As do new multilateral mobility frameworks agreed by States (such as the Pacific Regional Framework on Climate Mobility).

In the previous edition we presented a chapter analysing the use of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in migration systems, while also pointing to the ongoing impacts of technological change across wide areas of social, political and economic life globally. Since then, we have witnessed major advances in AI, especially generative AI tools that have burst on to the world stage, impacting a wide range of sectors and occupations, with calls from some to embrace such tools,¹⁰ while others (most notably the creators of the latest generative AI tools) caution against the increasing proliferation of AI technologies throughout our societies.¹¹

The highly uneven, sustained use of AI in only some migration systems points to the heightened risk that AI technologies in migration and mobility systems are on track to exacerbate digital divides, both between States and within States.¹² A prerequisite to AI uptake is ICT digital capability, particularly the digital data capture of processes and applicants’ identity data. These actions require access to ICT infrastructure and electricity, as well as skilled ICT staff, while many countries around the world lack these critical necessities, most especially least developed countries (LDCs).¹³ This is yet another domain in which differential capacity and resources widen the gap between States, adding to the digital divide and structural disadvantage experienced by LDCs in migration management. The “asymmetry of power” in AI for migration globally is an ongoing problem, likely to be exacerbated with every new advance.¹⁴

However, it is not just inequality between States that will impact migrants. The move toward greater digitalization of migration management and increased use of AI, including for visa services, border processing and identity management, will increasingly require potential migrants to be able to engage with authorities via digital channels. This poses obstacles for many people around the world who do not have access to ICT.¹⁵ Supporting access to safe, orderly and regular migration requires that digital equality is actively supported.

It is within this context that this World Migration Report focuses on developments in migration over the last two-year period, with an emphasis on providing analysis that takes into account historical and contemporary factors – historical in recognition that migration and displacement occur within broader long-term social, security, political and economic contexts.