Conclusions

The long-term narrative of migration has been based on the notion of opportunity, that people who migrate internationally do so in order to forge better lives. Migration has become strongly associated with attainment, with social and economic progress of individuals, of families, of communities and of nations. While this may have reflected a long-term reality stretching back well before the modern era, there may be reason to conclude that international migration no longer affords opportunity to the degree it has historically. Current data suggest that instead of serving as a stepladder of opportunity, international migration pathways for millions of people in developing countries have further narrowed.

Our analysis of global international migrant stock and HDI data show that between 1995 and 2020, migration from low and medium HDI countries increased, but only slightly. The combination of migration aspirations and migration infrastructure (or lack thereof) did not result in high growth rates of international migration from low and medium HDI countries, even when accounting for recategorization of HDI ratings over time. This is consistent with existing macroeconomic analyses, which show that international migration from low-income countries has historically been very limited.

On the other hand, the analysis in this chapter shows that contrary to previous understandings on the migration of people from high income countries – namely, that as country income levels increase above a threshold, international migration rates decline – the scale and proportion of outward migration from high and very high HDI countries has increased significantly. In fact, this bivariate analysis of migration stock across the last quarter century indicates that there has been a “polarizing” effect, with migration activity increasingly being associated with highly developed countries. This correlation raises the key issue of visa access and related migration policies, especially in the context of migration aspirations (Figure 2) held by potential migrants around the world who may wish to realize opportunities through international migration, but are unable to do so. New research shows that citizens of wealthy countries are much more able to access regulated mobility regimes than those from poor countries.⁷⁵

The need to reassess migration as a stepladder of opportunity has implications for the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration.⁷⁶ In an environment in which restrictive migration-related policies, such as border management, entry requirements and stay limitations, have become more prominent across the globe, it appears that there are systemic risks to the full realization of the SDGs and gains in human development (as flagged in the Human Development Report 2019). The situation has been further complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which is temporarily stalling migration and mobility across the globe and forcing all countries to re-evaluate their migration and border policies for the new post-pandemic world.