World Migration Report 2024: Chapter 7
Introduction
Climate change1 is widely considered an “existential threat to humanity”, in the words of United Nations Secretary‑General António Guterres.2 Its impacts are being increasingly felt, albeit unevenly, by communities and countries worldwide.3 In recent years, different editions of the World Migration Report have explored the linkages between human mobility, the environment and climate change, accompanying the growth in scientific literature devoted to this topic,4 with specific focuses on migration as adaptation,5 and on the links between slow-onset climate change and migration.6 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) notes that:
since AR5 [the fifth assessment report of 2014] there is increased evidence that climate hazards associated with extreme events and variability act as direct drivers of involuntary migration and displacement and as indirect drivers through deteriorating climate-sensitive livelihoods.7
Extreme environmental events – both attributable and non-attributable to climate change – have contributed to a rise in food insecurity worldwide. Multiple causes underpin food insecurity, including lack of food, lack of purchasing power, inadequate distribution and poor use of food at the household level.8 The number of people worldwide considered to be experiencing acute food insecurity and in need of urgent assistance rose to over 257 million in 2022, a 146 per cent increase since 2016.9 In light of this increase, and the worsening impacts of climate change, there is an urgent need to assess the connections between climate change, food insecurity and human mobility worldwide.
What do we mean by “climate change” and “food insecurity”?
The IPCC defines climate change as “a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. Note that the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, defines climate change as ‘a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods’. The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between climate change attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition and climate variability attributable to natural causes”.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) defines “food insecurity” as a situation that exists when people lack secure access to sufficient amounts of safe and nutritious food for normal growth and development, and an active and healthy life. It may be caused by the unavailability of food, insufficient purchasing power, inappropriate distribution, or inadequate use of food at the household level. Food insecurity, poor conditions of health and sanitation and inappropriate care and feeding practices are the major causes of poor nutritional status. Food insecurity may be chronic, seasonal or transitory.
Sources: FAO et al., 2013; IPCC, 2022.
Measuring the impact of climate change on food insecurity is a complicated task. Extreme climate events can cause food insecurity and are rendered more common due to climate change; however, the causal relationships between food insecurity and anthropogenic climate change are still limited by a lack of long-term data and the complexity of food systems.10 The unequal globalization of food supplies, including crop species production, supply and transportation, along with the specialization of the food industry, renders direct attribution virtually impossible.11 Non-climatic factors that have an impact on global food security, including the global COVID-19 pandemic,12 and conflict – such as the ongoing war in Ukraine – also need to be recognized.13
Human mobility, used here as an umbrella term, is a multicausal phenomenon, that often derives from a wide variety of factors interacting with each other.14 This umbrella term includes forced and voluntary forms of movement that can occur in the context of climate and environmental change. This terminology is aligned with the ongoing contribution of IOM,15 which has developed comprehensive working definitions of key terms relevant to the climate–migration nexus (see Appendix A). These definitions are not normative, nor are they internationally agreed upon, but they seek to provide a broad framing of the topic for working purposes. This is particularly useful when discussing human mobility in the context of sudden- and slow-onset climate impacts, as mobility can take many forms and can be linked to multiple interacting factors.
In the context of the current climate emergency and rising food insecurity, this chapter explores the interlinkages between climate change, food insecurity and human mobility, highlighting the complexities of the relationships between the three concepts in multiple scenarios. The next section assesses the different ways that climate change and food security influence human mobility, under what circumstances and through what channels. The following section explores the extent to which migration and human mobility form part of the solution to address climate change impacts and food security scenarios. The final section discusses approaches for developing policies and practices that have the potential to manage increasing risk, especially those impacting the most vulnerable communities. We include migrant voice text boxes throughout the chapter to underscore the human impacts at the local level.