Asia

Asia⁹⁶ – home to around 4.6 billion people – was the origin of over 40 per cent of the world’s international migrants (around 115 million), as shown in the latest available international migrant stock data (2020).⁹⁷ More than half (69 million) were residing in other countries in Asia, a significant increase from 2015, when around 61 million were estimated to be living within the continent. As shown in the middle panel of Figure 5, intraregional migration in Asia has increased significantly over time, rising from 35 million in 1990. Considerable growth has also occurred in Asian-born migrant populations in Northern America and Europe over the last two decades. In 2020, migration from Asia to Northern America reached 17.5 million, rising slightly from 17.3 million in 2015, whereas in Europe, migration from Asia stood at 23 million in 2020, increasing from almost 20 million in 2015. Migration from Asia to Northern America and Europe drove much of the increase in the number of Asian migrants outside the region, reaching a total of more than 46 million extraregional migrants in 2020.

The number of non-Asian-born migrants in Asia has remained at relatively low levels since 1990. Europeans comprise the largest group of migrants from outside Asia in the region. These numbers include migrants from the European part of the former Soviet Union now living in Central Asia. During the same period, the number of Africans – the other sizable group of migrants in Asia – has grown.

Source: UN DESA, 2021.
Notes: This is the latest available international migrant stock data at the time of writing. “Migrants to Asia” refers to migrants residing in the region (i.e. Asia) who were born in one of the other regions (e.g. Europe or Africa). “Migrants within Asia” refers to migrants born in the region (i.e. Asia) and residing outside their country of birth, but still within the Asian region. “Migrants from Asia” refers to people born in Asia who were residing outside the region (e.g. in Europe or Northern America).

In Asia, the distribution of female and male migrants in the top 10 countries of destination and origin is much more variable compared to Africa. In the top destination countries, Gulf countries – including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait – have a far greater share of male than female immigrants. Malaysia is the only non-Gulf country where the proportion of male migrants is significantly higher than that of females. India, meanwhile, has a slightly higher share of female immigrants than males. Among the top 10 countries of origin in Asia, nearly all of them – except China, the Philippines and Kazakhstan – have a higher share of male than female emigrants. Countries with a significantly high proportion of male emigrants include India, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Source: UN DESA, 2021.
Note: “Proportion” refers to the share of female or male migrants in the total number of immigrants in destination countries (left) or in the total number of emigrants from origin countries (right).

International displacement within and from Asia is a key feature of the region, as shown in Figure 7. The Syrian Arab Republic continued to be the largest origin of refugees in the world in 2022, with over 6.5 million people displaced internationally. The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 resulted in a significant increase in cross-border displacement from the country. In 2020 and 2021, Afghanistan was the origin of 2.6 and 2.7 million refugees, respectively; by end of 2022, this number had more than doubled to nearly 5.7 million, the second largest in Asia. Myanmar was the origin of the third largest number of refugees in Asia, with most hosted in neighbouring Bangladesh where Rohingya continue to be hosted following the mass displacement events of late 2017. As also reflected in Figure 7, Türkiye continued to be the largest host country of refugees in the world (nearly 3.6 million). Syrians are the majority of refugees hosted in Türkiye. Türkiye is followed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, where the number of refugees increased from close to 800,000 in 2021 to around 3.4 million in 2022, the result of more Afghans being displaced. Pakistan, the third largest host country in Asia, was home to 1.7 million refugees.

Source: UNHCR, n.d.a.
Note: “Hosted” refers to those refugees and asylum-seekers from other countries who are residing in the receiving country (right‑hand side of the figure); “abroad” refers to refugees and asylum‑seekers originating from that country who are outside of their origin country. The top 10 countries are based on 2022 data and are calculated by combining refugees and asylum‑seekers in and from countries.

In contrast to Africa, the largest internal displacements in Asia were the result of disasters, rather than conflict and violence. Pakistan, which experienced severe and widespread flooding, recorded the largest disaster displacements in the world (more than 8 million) in 2022. The second largest disaster displacements in the region were recorded in the Philippines (nearly 5.5 million) and largely triggered by tropical storm Nalgae, followed by China (over 3.6 million). India and Bangladesh also had significant disaster displacements in 2022 (see Figure 8). Myanmar had the largest internal displacements in the region driven by conflict in 2022 (over 1 million). This is the highest ever reported for the country and the result of intensifying conflict between the country’s military and non-State armed groups. Myanmar also had the second largest number of conflict displacements as a percentage of population after Kyrgyzstan.

Source: IDMC, n.d.; UN DESA, 2022.
Notes: The term “displacements” refers to the number of displacement movements that occurred in 2022 not the total accumulated stock of IDPs resulting from displacement over time. New displacement figures include individuals who have been displaced more than once and do not correspond to the number of people displaced during the year. The population size used to calculate the percentage of new disaster and conflict displacements is based on the total resident population of the country per 2021 UN DESA population estimates, and the percentage is for relative illustrative purposes only.

Key features and developments in Asia⁹⁸

South-East Asia

South-East Asia is one of the most disaster-prone subregions in the world, with millions of displacements occurring each year. Several countries in the subregion are located along the region’s typhoon belt or Pacific Ring of Fire, making people who live there extremely vulnerable to hazards such as floods and storms, tsunamis, earthquakes, among others.⁹⁹ Between 2020 and 2021, close to 31 per cent of disaster displacements recorded in Asia and the Pacific region occurred in South-East Asia, with countries such as the Philippines most affected.¹⁰⁰ By end of 2022, over 500,000 people in the Philippines were living in internal displacement due to disasters.¹⁰¹ In the same year, there were more than 5.4 million internal displacements due to disasters in the Philippines, the second highest figure in the world after Pakistan (which experienced over 8 million).¹⁰² A large number of these displacements were government-led pre-emptive evacuations in response to disasters such as typhoon Muifa, tropical storm Megi and tropical storm Nalgae.¹⁰³ People living in other countries in South-East Asia, such as Viet Nam and Indonesia, are also exposed to multiple hazards, with Viet Nam’s entire coastline, for example, at high risk of storms and cyclones. There were more than 350,000 and over 300,000 new disaster displacements in Viet Nam and Indonesia in 2022, respectively.¹⁰⁴

Labour migration both from and within the subregion has long been a key feature of migration dynamics in South-East Asia. Countries within the subregion, such as Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore, are major destinations for migrant workers from within the subregion. Other countries outside South-East Asia, including GCC States like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, are also significant destinations, especially for migrants from the Philippines.¹⁰⁵ Given its large emigrant population, the Philippines consistently ranks as one of the top recipients of international remittances globally. Migrants from the Philippines are estimated to have remitted over USD 38 billion in 2022, the fourth largest figure globally, accounting for 9.4 per cent of the country’s GDP.¹⁰⁶ The increase in remittances to the Philippines is partly the result of the recent lifting of a ban on Filipinos from working in Saudi Arabia (in protest against abusive treatment of its migrant workers), as well as the increased demand for Filipino workers in sectors such as hospitality and health in OECD countries.¹⁰⁷ Viet Nam – with a large emigrant population within the region and in countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom – also receives significant remittances; inflows to the country were around USD 13 billion in 2022, making it the second largest recipient country in the subregion.¹⁰⁸

The demand for migrant workers in destination countries, unemployment and underemployment in countries of origin and well-organized migrant smuggling networks have resulted in significant levels of irregular migration across South-East Asia. Often related to temporary labour migration, irregular migration remains prevalent in the subregion.¹⁰⁹ Countries such as Thailand and Malaysia have large numbers of migrant workers in irregular situations.¹¹⁰ Migrant smugglers exploit desperate migrants and utilize archipelagic and remote land borders to undermine the subregion’s managed migration systems, offering their services to migrants whose options for regular entry may be limited. The lack of a fully functioning international protection system in the subregion also means that people exploited by smugglers may be in need of protection or have mixed reasons for seeking to move irregularly.¹¹¹ Trafficking in persons is also an ever-present reality in South-East Asia, with many migrants exposed to multiple human rights violations and abuses.¹¹² South-East Asia remains the origin of the largest number of trafficked victims in Asia.¹¹³ For some migrant workers, factors such as “gender, ethnicity, age and geographic location” make them particularly vulnerable to trafficking, forced labour and other forms of exploitation.¹¹⁴ Globally, victims of trafficking who are women are the most detected among those trafficked for sexual exploitation (almost two thirds), while around 27 per cent are girls.¹¹⁵ Males comprise about 10 per cent of detected victims of sexual exploitation worldwide, with most reported in South-East Asia.¹¹⁶ Several countries in South-East Asia, including Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Viet Nam and Myanmar are categorized as tier 3 in the United States State Department 2022 Trafficking in Persons Report, meaning that their governments “do not fully meet the Trafficking Victims Protection Act of 2000 minimum standards and are not making significant efforts to do so”.¹¹⁷

Many vulnerable migrants in the subregion, particularly Rohingya, are increasingly embarking on risky journeys in search of protection and to escape deteriorating conditions in camps. An estimated 3,500 Rohingya embarked on sea crossings in 2022, both in the Bay of Bengal and in the Andaman Sea, a significant increase from the year before when less than 1000 people made similar journeys.¹¹⁸ Some of these crossings have been deadly and in December 2022, for example, a boat with nearly 200 Rohingya is believed to have sunk.¹¹⁹ With close to 350 dead or missing at sea recorded in 2022, it was one of the deadliest years since 2014.¹²⁰ A large number of people on these boats were women and children.¹²¹ Many, including those living in Bangladesh – which hosts the largest population of displaced Rohingya – have grown desperate to leave for a multitude of reasons, including the worsening conditions in crowded Kutupalong (the largest refugee camp in the world), lack of employment opportunities and increased crime and violence.¹²² Over several decades, Rohingya have endured persecution, violence and discrimination, including in 2017, which saw a record number of Rohingya flee to Bangladesh (more than 700,000) after the systemic violence inflicted on them in Rakhine province of Myanmar.¹²³ At the time of writing, there are ongoing plans to return some Rohingya from Bangladesh to Myanmar as part of a pilot project between the two governments.¹²⁴ Several reports have indicated, however, that many Rohingya do not want to return to Rakhine State under current conditions, which they deem unsafe and undignified;¹²⁵ United Nations agencies and some non-governmental organizations have also expressed concern that the conditions in Rakhine State remain unconducive to the sustainable return of Rohingya refugees.¹²⁶

Southern Asia

The subregion has experienced devastating disasters in recent years, some of which have been linked to climate change. Southern Asia is extremely vulnerable to climate shocks and has experienced extreme weather events such as heatwaves and floods in recent years. Long monsoon seasons, hotter weather and increased droughts are all expected to become the “new normal” in the subregion as temperatures continue to rise.¹²⁷ In 2022, countries such as India and Pakistan experienced record-breaking heatwaves and in the same year, the monsoon-season floods left a trail of destruction, particularly in Pakistan. The 2022 floods in Pakistan – some of the deadliest in the country’s history – resulted in nearly 1,700 deaths and more than 8 million displacements.¹²⁸ Other countries, such as Bangladesh – given its location and low-lying topography – have also borne the brunt of extreme weather events, with thousands of people displaced every year due to disasters. Record-breaking floods in Bangladesh in 2022 – some of the worst in 100 years – led to dozens of deaths.¹²⁹ In 2022 alone, disasters triggered over 1.5 million displacements in Bangladesh.¹³⁰

With a very large number of migrant workers from the subregion, Southern Asia receives some of the largest inflows of remittances globally. Three countries in Southern Asia rank among the top ten recipients of international remittances in the world, underscoring the significance of labour migration from the subregion. With India estimated to have received more than USD 111 billion in 2022, it is by far the largest recipient of international remittances in the world and the first country to ever reach that figure.¹³¹ India is also the origin of the largest number of international migrants in the world (nearly 18 million), with large diasporas living in countries such as the United Arab Emirates, the United States and Saudi Arabia.¹³² Pakistan and Bangladesh, which were the sixth and eighth largest international remittance recipients in 2022 (nearly 30 billion and around 21.5 billion, respectively), also have a significant portion of their populations living abroad as migrant workers, especially in GCC States.¹³³ International remittances are also important to countries such as Nepal, where they make up nearly 23 per cent of national GDP.¹³⁴ While remittances remain a lifeline for many people in the subregion, migrant workers from these countries continue to face a myriad of risks, including financial exploitation, excessive financial debt due to migration costs, xenophobia and workplace abuses.¹³⁵

Years of political instability and conflict in Southern Asia have resulted in significant displacement, with countries in the subregion both origin and destination of some of the largest number of IDPs in the world. Millions of Afghans are either internally displaced or have fled their country over the years. More than 4 million Afghans were living in internal displacement at the end of 2022.¹³⁶ Most refugees from the country are hosted in neighbouring countries, particularly Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran. By the end of 2022, Pakistan hosted the fourth largest number of refugees in the world (more than 1.7 million), most of them Afghans.¹³⁷ At the end of the same year, the Islamic Republic of Iran was home to more than 3.4 million refugees, the vast majority also from Afghanistan.¹³⁸ Afghanistan is currently facing one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises, with around 95 per cent of Afghans unable to get enough food to eat.¹³⁹ Many people are also fleeing due to fear of long-term Taliban rule, including restrictions on women and girls, such as banning girls from attending secondary school and women from working.¹⁴⁰ Despite ongoing risks, Pakistan announced in October 2023 that undocumented Afghans had to leave the country by 1 November 2023 or face expulsion.¹⁴¹ The announcement prompted both IOM and UNHCR to issue a statement calling on Pakistan “to continue its protection of all vulnerable Afghans who have sought safety in the country and could be at imminent risk if forced to return.”¹⁴² By end of October 2023, more than 100,000 Afghans had left, with most citing fear of arrest as the reason for leaving Pakistan.¹⁴³ Another country in the subregion, Bangladesh, also hosts a large number of refugees. At the end of 2021, Bangladesh ranked among the top 10 refugee hosting countries in the world, most of them Rohingya displaced from Myanmar.¹⁴⁴

Eastern Asia

As populations across Eastern Asia continue to shrink and experience significant labour shortages, some countries are increasingly turning to migrant workers. The Republic of Korea’s demographic crisis deepened in 2022, as its birthrate dropped to the lowest level since records began.¹⁴⁵ With an average of 0.78 children per woman, this is also the lowest birthrate in the world.¹⁴⁶ Japan has also been undergoing population decline over the last few decades, with births falling to less than 800,000 in 2022— also the lowest on record.¹⁴⁷ The country is also facing an ageing population and a shrinking workforce. For the first time since 1961, China’s population declined in 2022, while its birthrate has also continued to fall.¹⁴⁸ These demographic shifts, including rapidly declining working age populations, especially in the Republic of Korea and Japan, have raised concerns among policymakers, prompting them to enact a range of measures – including those aimed at increasing immigration – to boost their workforce.¹⁴⁹ In an effort to fill gaps in key sectors such as agriculture, the Republic of Korea announced toward the end of 2022 that it plans to bring in about 110,000 migrant workers in 2023.¹⁵⁰ Japan is also slowly continuing to allow in foreign workers in key sectors, including through the recently announced “specified skilled worker" programme, which includes memorandums of cooperation with 14 Asian countries.¹⁵¹

Parts of Eastern Asia are hotspots for disasters (such as floods, tsunamis and earthquakes), with the subregion witnessing some of the largest displacements in the last decade. In 2022, China recorded 3.6 million internal disaster displacements, the second highest figure globally.¹⁵² Given its location on three tectonic plates, Japan is often vulnerable to volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis and typhoons, among other disasters. Japan recorded 51,000 displacements due to disasters in 2022, an increase from those recorded in 2021 (14,000).¹⁵³ The country’s recurring disasters, some argue, have been exacerbated by climate change and environmental changes.¹⁵⁴ Japan’s well-established disaster risk management, however, has been effective in lessening the scale of displacements triggered by disasters.¹⁵⁵

Eastern Asia has one of the largest diasporas in the world and continues to be the recipient of large remittance inflows. With over 10 million emigrants, China remains among the largest recipients of international remittances in the world.¹⁵⁶ Remittances to the country, however, have dropped over the last two years. Mexico overtook China as the second largest recipient of international remittances in the world (after India) in 2021, and this continued in 2022, with China estimated to have received USD 51 billion, behind Mexico’s more than USD 61 billion.¹⁵⁷ The contraction of remittance flows to China has been attributed to multiple factors, including demographic shifts that have resulted in the shrinking of the working age population and the country’s zero-COVID policy, which prevented people from travelling abroad for work.¹⁵⁸

The COVID-19 pandemic had a major impact on the number of international students from and to Eastern Asia, although several countries in the subregion remain committed to becoming key destinations for international students. While China continues to be the origin of the largest number of international students in the world, these numbers have fallen since COVID-19.¹⁵⁹ In 2020–2021, for example, Chinese enrolments in the United States declined by 15 per cent (the first decline in a decade), while commencements in the United Kingdom dropped by 5 per cent.¹⁶⁰ However, since the country’s reopening, there seems to be renewed interest in studying abroad, and Chinese students are reportedly focused on moving particularly to the United Kingdom, Australia and Canada.¹⁶¹ China is also an important destination for international students, especially those from the Republic of Korea, Thailand, Pakistan and India.¹⁶² Japan and the Republic of Korea also remain committed to further attracting and increasing the number of international students in their countries.¹⁶³ In a recent government proposal, Japan announced the goal of attracting 400,000 foreign students by 2033, while also sending 500,000 Japanese students to study abroad.¹⁶⁴

Middle East

The Middle East remains a major origin of refugees and asylum-seekers, while also featuring some of the largest internally displaced populations in the world. By the end of 2022, Türkiye was home to nearly 3.6 million refugees, the largest number in the world.¹⁶⁵ Other countries in the subregion such as Lebanon and Jordan also host large numbers of refugees relative to their population. At the end of 2022, 1 in 7 and 1 in 16 persons residing in Lebanon and Jordan respectively were refugees and other people in need of international protection.¹⁶⁶ Moreover, the Middle East also continues to be the source of millions of people in need of protection. The Syrian Arab Republic was the origin of around 6.5 million refugees in 2022.¹⁶⁷ While the number of Syrian refugees declined in the first six months of 2022, the first time since 2011, almost one in five refugees globally is Syrian.¹⁶⁸ Despite the decline in the number of Syrian refugees globally, there has been a rise in xenophobia and racist attacks against them, including in countries such as Türkiye and Lebanon.¹⁶⁹ A surge in anti-immigrant sentiment, as both Türkiye and Lebanon have recently experienced worsening economic crises, has resulted in racialized assaults on Syrian migrants.¹⁷⁰ Disinformation about migrants, spurred on by incendiary rhetoric from far‑right nationalist parties, has played a significant role in driving the recent attacks.¹⁷¹ Meanwhile, in February 2023, south-east Türkiye and the northern part of the Syrian Arab Republic experienced two powerful earthquakes, resulting in more than 50,000 deaths.¹⁷² By March, an estimated 2.7 million people had been displaced in Türkiye and many had been left homeless in the Syrian Arab Republic.¹⁷³ The earthquake is one of the largest disasters to impact the region in recent times; in the north-east of the Syrian Arab Republic, which was already facing an acute humanitarian crisis due to years of conflict, the earthquake exacerbated a situation that was already dire for many people.¹⁷⁴

Recent and protracted conflicts and violence are the leading drivers of displacement in the subregion. In the Occupied Palestinian Territory, hostilities have resulted in significant displacement and an acute humanitarian crisis. In response to armed groups from Gaza that killed or injured thousands of Israelis (and took many hostage) in the attacks of 7 October 2023, Israel declared a “state of war”, which has resulted in the heavy bombardment of Gaza.¹⁷⁵ By end of October 2023, more than 1 million people in Gaza were internally displaced and thousands had been killed as a result of the conflict.¹⁷⁶ Meanwhile, the war in Yemen, now in its ninth year, has been unrelenting, resulting in one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises. An estimated two thirds of the population depend on humanitarian aid, including 4.5 million IDPs.¹⁷⁷ Despite its current humanitarian crisis, Yemen remains a key transit point, especially for migrants from the Horn of Africa going to neighbouring Gulf countries, notably Saudi Arabia and Oman. Most of these migrants – often fleeing from poverty, persecution, insecurity and conflict, among other drivers – are from Ethiopia. Migrants pass through Djibouti and Somalia before travelling by sea to Yemen and onward by land to Saudi Arabia.¹⁷⁸ A large number of migrants are exposed to extreme protection risks, both on their way to and upon arrival in Yemen; some of these include violence, exploitation and having to live in conditions lacking basic necessities.¹⁷⁹ The majority of deaths along land routes in the Middle East in 2022 occurred in Yemen, with close to 800 people (mostly Ethiopians), losing their lives on the route between Yemen and Saudi Arabia.¹⁸⁰ There has also been irregular migration in the opposite direction, with Yemenis in recent years fleeing war to countries such as Djibouti and spontaneous returns of migrants from Yemen to the Horn of Africa.¹⁸¹ Some migrants who manage to reach destinations such as Saudi Arabia or Oman find themselves forcibly returned to Yemen. Between January and April 2023, more than 300 migrants (most of them Ethiopians) were deported from Oman to Yemen.¹⁸² In the Syrian Arab Republic, more than 6.8 million people were living in internal displacement at end of 2022 due to conflict and violence.¹⁸³ The 12-year crisis has taken a toll on many and, by May 2023, more than 15 million Syrians were in need of humanitarian assistance.¹⁸⁴ Other countries in the region such as Iraq have also continued to experience violence, while intercommunal violence has also displaced many people in Lebanon.¹⁸⁵ Moreover, as the economic situation in Lebanon has deteriorated, an increasing number of Lebanese are leaving the country and embarking on risky sea journeys. Of the nearly 380 recorded deaths on the eastern Mediterranean route in 2022, more than 170 died due to shipwrecks following their departure from Lebanon.¹⁸⁶

Gulf States remain significant destinations for migrant workers from around the world, and the 2022 football World Cup further underscored the importance of migrant labour to the subregion as well as rights violations. Migrants continue to comprise high proportions of the total populations in many GCC States. In the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar, migrants made up 88 per cent, nearly 73 and 77 per cent of the national populations, respectively. Most migrants – many of whom come from countries such as India, Egypt, Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Kenya – work in sectors such as construction, hospitality, security, domestic work and retail. Several countries in the Gulf are among the largest sources of remittances globally. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar, for example, had remittance outflows of around USD 39 billion, about USD 18 billion and over USD 12 billion, respectively, among the top 20 largest worldwide.¹⁸⁷ Labour migration to the Gulf is highly gendered, and in 2019, only around 4 per cent of women migrant workers globally were living in Arab States, compared to around 20 per cent of male migrant workers.¹⁸⁸

Central Asia

Central Asia continues to be the recipient of significant international remittances, despite recent events such as the Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Several Central Asian countries are heavily reliant on remittances from the Russian Federation, given the historical ties between countries and the large number of workers from countries such as Tajikistan and Uzbekistan working in the Russian Federation, often in low-paying sectors that do not require high levels of education.¹⁹¹ The Russian Federation has been a significant source of remittances for these countries for decades, making up more than half of the flows to countries such as Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.¹⁹² International remittances to Central Asia, defying projections related to an anticipated contraction of the Russian economy,¹⁹³ remain robust, and flows to countries such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan reached record levels in 2022. Uzbekistan is estimated to have received more than USD 16.7 billion in international remittances in 2022, while remittances accounted for more than 51 and 31 per cent of the GDP of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, respectively, during the same year.¹⁹⁴

The Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and related military conscription in 2022 resulted in a historic influx of Russians into Central Asia. In an effort to avoid the draft, hundreds of thousands of Russian men fled the country, many to Central Asian States such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Following the partial mobilization announcement in September 2022, more than 200,000 entered Kazakhstan in a span of a few days.¹⁹⁵ Kazakhstan’s close proximity, lack of visa requirements for Russians to enter, large Russian ethnic minority and the fact that Russian is widely spoken all made it an ideal destination for those fleeing the Russian Federation.¹⁹⁶ Other key destinations for Russians fearing conscription included Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, among others. In 2023, however, Kazakhstan revised its entry rules, making it harder to enter and stay in the country, a move that was reportedly in response to the many Russians who have entered the country since September 2022.¹⁹⁷

While the Russian Federation remains the primarily destination for migrant workers from Central Asia, mobility patterns seem to be shifting, with an increasing number of migrants from the subregion moving to the European Union and Asia. In the period between 2016 and 2019, the number of central Asian citizens granted permits to study, work or live in the European Union increased by 14 per cent, while migrants from countries such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan who moved to the Republic of Korea grew by 92 per cent from nearly 10,800 to close to 20,700.¹⁹⁸ More Central Asians have also been moving to other parts of Asia such as Türkiye.¹⁹⁹ With the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine and possible slowing down of its economy due to economic sanctions, some predict that this trend – with Central Asians increasingly choosing to migrate to other countries outside the Russian Federation – may only accelerate. Uzbekistan is already diversifying destination countries for its migrant workers, and in 2022 signed a labour migration agreement with Israel and in 2023 was in negotiations with countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom.²⁰⁰

Across Central Asia, climate change continues to threaten lives and livelihoods and, in some cases, has been linked to the escalating tensions and conflict as well as displacement in the subregion. Over the last few decades, Central Asia has been warming faster than the global average. Desert climates have also spread in parts of the subregion.²⁰¹ Moreover, we have seen a declining glacier surface area in Central Asia over several decades and the melting snowcaps are, in part, responsible for disasters such as some of the recent floods and landslides.202 Dam failures and collapses have also significantly contributed to floods and related displacements in the subregion. Further, droughts have worsened in recent years, resulting in water shortages, including for activities such as irrigation.²⁰³ Water management issues across borders – particularly between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – have increasingly fuelled tensions and led to violent clashes.²⁰⁴ There have also been reports of violent clashes between farmers in Uzbekistan’s Namangan and Surkhandarya regions over water resources.²⁰⁵ Outside of climate change, conflict-related displacement has also featured in the subregion. In 2022, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan underwent a major crisis when tensions escalated and resulted in armed clashes along the disputed border between the two countries.²⁰⁶ The violence caused dozens of deaths and the destruction of markets, schools and other civilian structures.²⁰⁷ The clashes also triggered 166,000 displacements on the Kyrgyz side, more than triple the number in 2021.²⁰⁸ An estimated 137,000 people in Kyrgyzstan were also evacuated from the southern region of Batken.²⁰⁹